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Technology path assessment for sustainable technology development
Björn A Sandén
Department of Environmental Systems Analysis, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden
Abstract
Forming strategy and policy that guide technology development into sustainable paths is great a challenge. Different kinds of environmental assessment tools exist, that take into account the benefits and disadvantages of different technologies. However, they pay little attention to the dynamics of technical change.
This paper presents a technology path assessment, which consists of three parts that roughly deal with the questions: Where do we want to go? What is happening now? And, how can the current development be linked to future desirable outcomes - is there a risk that the long-term best options are locked out? The assessment makes use of and brings together bits and pieces of existing assessment methods, but also suggest the need for new methodological tools. The theoretical development within evolutionary economics and science and technology studies could be used to further develop the methodology.
To illustrate the methodology and key concepts, examples from three technological areas are given: the historical case of nuclear energy and two cases of ongoing technology developments represented by solar photovoltaics (PV) and new fuels in the transportation sector.
Keywords
sustainable paths, environmental assessment, change dynamics, technology forecasting, desirable outcomes, assessment method, case studies
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