European manufacturing in transition - The challenge of sustainable development: Four scenarios 2015-2020
Anton Geyer
Technopolis Austria, Vienna and European Commission Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville
Fabiana Scapolo
Technopolis Austria, Vienna and European Commission Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville
PP: 331 - 343
Abstract
The paper presents four scenarios that explore the interplay between social, economic, policy and technological factors and their implications for sustainable manufacturing in Europe on a 15 to 20 year time horizon: Global Economy envisages a world in which global markets are politically and technologically dominated by one super power. Local Standard assumes that strong European regions put limits to globalisation. A global governance system and a changing notion of wealth creation frame the Sustainable Times scenario. Focus Europe portrays Europe pursuing its sustainability goals despite headwind from other world regions.
The analysis points to the socioeconomic framework conditions that will shape industrial approaches to improve sustainability. We argue that sustainable manufacturing does not depend on either technological and business opportunities or good governance or responsible consumers but on the successful alignment of all these drivers. In order to facilitate change towards sustainable manufacturing, policy makers should therefore pay attention to the management of the interfaces between the respective policy fields.
Keywords
foresight, manufacturing, sustainable development, new technology, scenarios
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