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Twin innovation systems, intermediate technology and economic development: History and prospect for China

Andrew Tylecote
Professor, Economics & Management of Technological Change, Sheffield University Management School, Sheffield, England

Abstract

This paper argues that less developed countries (LDCs) need twin national systems of innovation: systems with one, 'upper' level or sub-system to engage with advanced technology and develop industries which use it; and (cooperating with the upper level) a 'lower' level to help to improve the economy's existing, traditional technology.

The focus is on the lower level. The process there should involve the development and use of intermediate technologies. These are much better suited to the LDC's factor endowment, and maximise the opportunities for learning by doing. Most LDCs lack such a lower level, and lose much from this; Brazil is an example. Japan and Taiwan developed twin NSIs and gained accordingly, until success caused the levels to merge. 19th century Denmark and Malaysia recently are other cases in point. Mainland China failed to build on its 1950s beginnings and the lower level of its NSI is now weak.

The lower level of the NSI needs to be closely coupled with the upper level of the NSI, as the Japanese example shows. Key modern technologies, such as (nowadays) ICT and biotechnology, can only be made available to the lower level of the NSI through the upper level of the NSI. In biotechnology, for example, one role of the upper level of the NSI would be to conduct genetic modification of crop plants, eg insect-resistant cotton - as it has been doing vigorously in China. The corresponding role of the lower level of the NSI would be to cross-breed GM crops with local varieties adapted in each area to the local soil and climate.

In ICT, where the Chinese effort at upper NSI level has been massive, the lower level of the NSI needs from the upper level a tool kit of simple, robust, cheap hardware and (open source) software: with this, local agricultural cooperatives and rural producers of manufactures could, for example, develop their own websites, and their own computer-controlled equipment.

Keywords

national system of innovation, intermediate technology, lower-level national system of innovation, mainland China's technological development

Article Text

Introduction: Levels of technology and of national systems of innovation

Developing countries have a fairly clear-cut division of their economies into two parts, 'modern' and 'traditional':

To some extent this division will go by sector: there are inevitably high-technology sectors like aircraft which must be modern to exist at all, and sectors providing traditional staple foods and traditional services to the domestic market which tend mostly to use traditional technology. A sector may however in a given country have both advanced and traditional technology either in distinct sub-sectors (up-market and down-market) or working together - as where transformation processes are advanced and transfer processes traditional (Amsalem 1982, for Brazil). As developed countries continue to innovate, the gap between 'advanced' technology and 'traditional' technology tends to widen.

It is with regard to developing country firms and sectors using advanced technology (hereinafter called the 'modern economy') that one can recognise an NSI much like that of a typical developed country. The country's institutions of research and higher education are likely to be mainly focused on needs; as are the banking system and the policy-making parts of government, and state-owned utilities (who provide support in the form of contracts). What is of course unlike a typical developed country is that there is little really innovative activity: most of the effort is devoted to finding, accessing, mastering and, to a modest degree, adapting technology already developed elsewhere. Since there is a great deal of all that taking place in every developed country, the resemblance is still quite close.

The concentration of the NSI on the 'modern economy' is partly because it genuinely needs help in order to survive, particularly once exposed to international competition. Partly it is because it is believed that progress is about using advanced technology and that nothing less will do. Inevitably such concentration is expensive. Two means of economising on the cost of such progress are now accepted:

To rely mainly on FDI for advanced technology would mean ceding control of the economy to foreigners, and would therefore for most developing countries (including China) be an unacceptable way of saving resources, and in the long run perhaps an illusory one. As for specialisation, the larger the economy, the less scope there is to specialise in a small number of sectors or sub-sectors. Thus the challenge remains for a large developing economy to master a wide range of modern technology.

As for the firms and sectors using traditional technology (hereinafter the 'traditional economy'), in most developing countries it is hard to recognise anything which deserves the name of an innovation system, or even a technological change system. What changes there mostly trickles in from abroad or from the rest of the economy: there is nothing systematic about it. (One exception may be in agriculture where a new crop strain developed abroad or in domestic research institutes may be taken up by otherwise traditional farmers - high-yielding rice in the 1970s; genetically-modified cotton recently ). The gap between 'modern' and 'traditional' economies thus tends to grow wider, and progress is likely to take place by the wholesale importation of advanced technology into a farm or enterprise, or by the growth of 'modern' enterprises at the expense of the rest. The relative size of the two economies thus reflects the level of development.

This paper will argue, however, that this is a poor way to achieve rapid technological development. The lower-technology parts of the economy need to be integrated within the country's NSI even though (indeed largely because) it may be by squeezing them that most of the revenues required for nurturing the 'modern economy' can be obtained. Further, the 'modern economy' can grow much more quickly if there is available to it a large reservoir of human capital, entrepreneurs and whole businesses which already have most of the skills and capabilities required within it - developed while part of the 'traditional economy'. Initially, however, the sub-systems of innovation of the two economies must be quite distinct. The 'modern economy' may replace some mechanised processes by more labour-intensive ones - for example, components may be moved from one machine to the next by hand rather than by a moving belt, as Amsalem found was common in Brazil. It may save again by buying rather dated, second-hand equipment; or by working that equipment for two shifts rather than one, or three rather than two (Morris-Suzuki 1994: 87 on Japanese cotton-spinning in the late 19th century). Nevertheless, the basic processes of transformation (in a manufacturing industry; mutatis mutandis for others) will be the same as in the developed world, however unsuited they are to the developing country - however much they stretch its technological capability and strain its resources of money and skill. So the upper level of the NSI must mirror, and be closely attached to, the NSIs of the developed world.

In the lower-technology parts, the 'traditional economy', it is necessarily different. Traditional producers must start from where they are: making traditional products and services with traditional methods and equipment. Yet they may move up and steadily close the gap between themselves and the modern economy. They will only do so, however, if there is a lower-level NSI which assists them to move incrementally through a succession of levels of technology, all of which can be described as intermediate between 'traditional' and 'modern':

.... continued ....

Conclusions

This paper has used theory and history together to argue that not only the poor of developing countries, but the whole economy, gain from the development of a vigorous lower level of the NSI which helps traditional producers to move incrementally through a succession of levels of intermediate technology, resulting in increasing close connection and ultimate merger with the upper level of the NSI and its 'modern economy'. One thing the upper level of the NSI gets from a vigorous lower level is a source of cheap inputs of components. Even more to the point of technological development, it gets reasonably skilled, if informally trained, workers with the self-confidence to fix problems on the spot rather than call in a foreign expert. In due course it gets techno-entrepreneurs like Honda and Matsushita with even more self-confidence.

Japan, Taiwan and Denmark at various periods and varying degrees of detail have been cited as cases in point. Brazil has been used as a counter-example of an economy held back by the lack of a vigorous lower level of the NSI. The experience of these four countries, besides supporting the main proposition, shows that

matter at least as much as formal government policies, and interact with them and with each other.

The discussion of the mainland Chinese lower level of the NSI, confined as it was to agriculture, shows a situation somewhere between the extremes of the first four cases. Like Taiwan and Denmark (Japan only later) China experienced far-reaching land reform at the beginning of the relevant period; but it stopped short of giving peasants ownership of the land they tilled. The institutions of a lower level of the NSI were initially built up systematically and reasonably well funded; but they were not given any real autonomy. Deng's reforms after 1978 freed peasants and rural producers generally to use their initiative individually, and even to form producer associations. This led to a flowering of economic activity in the countryside, which was nipped in the bud in most regions by a fiscal squeeze and tilting of the rural/urban terms of trade to the benefit of the advanced urban areas. Over the same period, and with the same effect, government resourcing of the NSI tilted against the lower level. Greater freedom of association was offset by a top-down system of local government which was in most areas parasitic on, and nowhere accountable to, the rural population. Lacking ownership (and until recently, even secure tenure) peasants could not borrow against the collateral of their land; nor was there - or is there - a good system of rural banks. The fiscal squeeze on the countryside has now been sharply relaxed, but there has been no corresponding institutional improvement - with the government's new emphasis on agricultural companies and TSSRAs, we are as far from bottom-up initiative as ever.

China is not Brazil. Some provinces, notably Zhejiang, have seen a flowering of rural industry to the point of dominating world markets in a range of more-or-less labour-intensive sectors, through individual and collective initiative - even if the best that can be said of central and local government contributions is that they did little to get in the way. In such areas, there appears to be a functioning lower-level NSI, much though it would benefit from more support. The Chinese system of land tenure, imperfect as it has been, does provide something of a base from which young members of farming families can provide genuinely cheap labour whether in the rural areas or in the cities. Nonetheless, the inequalities of income between the rural hinterland and the advanced urban areas are now, as in Brazil, extreme, and are producing a mass permanent migration of peasant families to these urban areas on a scale comparable to that which has already taken place in Brazil. This (and the one-child policy) threatens to deprive the lower-level NSI of the key ingredient of cheap peasant labour.

The opportunities being missed are great. There are limits to what China could gain from the Taiwanese (and Zhejiang) style of concentrating labour-intensive industry on exports, simply because it is too large: it would (it will?) soon hit the limits of what the world market can absorb. But the obverse of this are the advantages of size. Like Japan (and indeed Brazil), only more so, China is a large economy in which there is great scope for the 'traditional economy' to develop technologically and industrially by supplying its own markets. This is a great advantage, because it means that producers are not bound by the product specifications required on international (particularly Northern) markets. (Galvao 1994 found for the Brazilian food processing industry that poorer consumers were more willing to buy lower-technology products, because they were cheaper.) Not only can small traditional producers start from where they are in terms of process sophistication, and increase their productivity incrementally (with occasional leaps when technology blending with advanced technologies takes place), they can do much the same in terms of product specification. They need outside help, on the Japanese model described above; and the advantage of the Chinese situation is the huge external scale economies involved - even if, as the Shouguang example shows, there must be careful modifications to reflect the different needs of different parts of the country. As the Intermediate Technology Development Group (now renamed Practical Action) has repeatedly demonstrated (www.itdg.org), important innovations in intermediate technology can be made for relatively small amounts of money. (So indeed has the Spark Programme.) The one-off costs of each R&D project can be set against the huge potential market for the new technologies.

The lower level of the NSI needs to be closely coupled with the upper level of the NSI, as the Japanese example shows. Key modern technologies, such as (nowadays) ICT and biotechnology, can only be made available to the lower level of the NSI through the upper level of the NSI. In biotechnology, for example, one role of the upper level of the NSI would be to conduct genetic modification of crop plants, eg insect-resistant cotton - as it has been doing vigorously in China. The corresponding role of the lower level of the NSI would be to cross-breed GM crops with local varieties adapted in each area to the local soil and climate. In ICT, where the Chinese effort at upper NSI level has been massive, the lower level of the NSI needs from the upper level a tool kit of simple, robust, cheap hardware and (open source) software: with this, local agricultural cooperatives and rural producers of manufactures could, for example, develop their own websites, and their own computer-controlled equipment.


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